LENTERAMERAH – Across two very different parts of the world—Kazakhstan on the Eurasian steppe and a certain island nation—a similar political story unfolds: a former president reluctant to relinquish control, and an elected successor who must walk a tightrope between the legacy of the old regime and the mandate of a new era. In Kazakhstan, this narrative is embodied in Tokayev’s struggle to redefine leadership and reshape national governance.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who assumed office on March 20, 2019, continues to battle the shadow of his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s first president after independence from the Soviet Union.
The Power Behind the Curtain
Although Nazarbayev officially stepped down in 2019, his influence lingered. He retained the title of “Elbasy” (Leader of the Nation), led the ruling Nur Otan party (now Amanat), and maintained control over key sectors such as energy and mining through his family and inner circle.
Tokayev, initially seen as a loyal successor, even renamed the capital to “Nur-Sultan” in Nazarbayev’s honor.
But the January 2022 unrest—known as “Qandy Qantar”—shifted the political landscape. Protesters chanted “Shal Ket!” (“Old Man, Leave!”) in direct rejection of Nazarbayev’s lingering control.
Tokayev responded swiftly: removing Nazarbayev from the Security Council, taking over the ruling party, and dismantling the old elite’s networks.
Tokayev’s Political Consolidation
Both Nazarbayev and Tokayev belonged to the same party, Nur Otan, founded by Nazarbayev in 1999 as his political vehicle.
When Nazarbayev stepped down in March 2019, Tokayev was named successor. He then won a snap election in June 2019 with 70.96 percent of the vote, backed by Nur Otan.
Tokayev was no outsider; he had served as Prime Minister (1999–2002) and as Senate Chairman under Nazarbayev, making him the constitutional successor.
Following the unrest, Tokayev’s struggle took full control of the party, renaming it Amanat in March 2022.
To maintain presidential neutrality, he handed party leadership to the Speaker of the Lower House. Nonetheless, Amanat remains Tokayev’s main political tool. Most parliament and cabinet members now hail from his circle.
In security, Tokayev dismissed National Security Committee chief Karim Massimov, a Nazarbayev loyalist, and replaced him with Yermek Sagimbayev, his former security head.
Massimov was sentenced to 18 years in prison for treason. Nazarbayev’s nephew, Kairat Satybaldy, was jailed for six years for corruption, with over $1.7 billion in assets seized from Nazarbayev’s cronies between 2022 and 2024.
Still, Nazarbayev remains untouched. In August 2024, the Supreme Court rejected a legal challenge against him. Though the “Elbasy” title was revoked by referendum, he remains legally untouchable.
Trans-Caspian Project, Between Ambition and Risk
As Tokayev consolidates power, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) has emerged as a strategic priority.
Also known as the Middle Corridor, TITR links China and Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.
The route offers an alternative to the northern (Russia) and southern (Iran) corridors, and gained new relevance after the Russia–Ukraine war.
In 2023, the corridor transported 2.76 million tons. Tokayev aims to reach 500,000 containers annually by 2030.
The European Union has pledged €10 billion in infrastructure investments, including upgrades to the Aktau and Kuryk ports.
But the project’s success depends on domestic stability. Sabotage by the old elite or corruption could deter EU and other partners. Ports, railways, and logistics require transparency and legal certainty—two pillars Tokayev seeks to establish through bureaucratic reform.
The Nazarbayev Oligarchy, From Formal to Shadow Power
Nazarbayev’s family and allies—the so-called “Nazarbayev oligarchy”—once dominated nearly every sector of Kazakhstan’s economy.
His son-in-law Timur Kulibayev led Samruk-Kazyna, the massive state holding overseeing oil, gas, and infrastructure, and wielded significant influence in the private energy sector. Tokayev’s struggle.
His eldest daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, once Senate Chair, has vanished from the political scene. His nephew, Satybaldy, is in prison.
Yet, the dynasty still controls billions in assets at home and abroad. Though weakened, it retains sway in private industries from mining to finance.
Reports suggest they continue to operate as “shadow rulers,” capable of undermining Tokayev’s reforms via economic pressure or loyalists embedded in the bureaucracy.
New Elites and Political Balance
Post-2022, Tokayev has promoted a new generation of elites. Prime Minister Oljas Bektenov, appointed on February 6, 2024, is a former anti-corruption agency chief known for his technocratic stance. Pro-Tokayev figures now dominate both parliament and the government.
Still, this stability is fragile. Social unrest over inequality or failed distribution of TITR benefits could reignite tensions.
Conversely, sustained stability would allow Kazakhstan to solidify its role as a Eurasian logistics hub and reduce dependency on Russia.
Kazakhstan stands at a historical crossroads. The Trans-Caspian route symbolizes a push for political and economic sovereignty.
Tokayev’s struggle will be judged not only by the policies he enacts but by whether he can dismantle the residual grip of the past without triggering chaos.
If he succeeds, history may remember him not just as Nazarbayev’s successor, but as the architect of a new Kazakhstan. ***
